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Early Week Line Movements

doc's sports | Robert Ferringo ( Tue 25th, November 2008 )

I don't know if anything else could better summarize my findings about the early line movements

over the last two years than this:

Two weekends ago the most severe early line movements within the first 24 hours of the opening lines being released went 0-4 against the spread in college football and 3-0 ATS in the NFL. This past weekend the early college action went 3-1 while the NFL went 0-2. The pendulum continues to swing.

Overall the "sharp" early line movements were just 3-3 and that is a loser. Over the past two weeks it has gone 6-7 and that runs our season total to 75-68, which is essentially the break-even point at 52.4 percent.

Here are this week's games:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

UTEP at East Carolina (1 p.m., Friday, Nov. 28)
Open: ECU -8.5
Current: ECU -5.5
Tracking: UTEP

Since its Cinderella start, ECU has come back down to earth in a big, big way. The Pirates are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games despite winning four of five straight up. ECU has played overtime games in two of the last four games and this matchup with UTEP went to OT last year. The Miners nearly shocked Houston last week as 18-point puppies and have covered three straight.

New Mexico State at Utah State (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 29)
Open: Utah State -3.0
Current: Utah State -6.0
Tracking: Utah State

Brent Guy will be coaching his final game for Utah State and it looks like early bettors have a feeling that the Aggies will give him an inspired effort for his send off. That said, the underdog has covered seven of the last nine meetings and USU has won three of four in this series.

Auburn at Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 29)
Open: Alabama -17.0
Current: Alabama -14.0
Tracking: Auburn

It's never a great idea to lay more than two touchdowns in a rivalry game. Everyone expects that No. 1 Alabama will absolutely decimate their main rivals this weekend. But that's why they play the game. Auburn has won five straight in this series and they have nothing to lose. Or is it nothing to play for? These are two powerful defenses, but the difference is that Alabama can put up points. But enough to cover this large number?

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

San Francisco at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
Open: Buffalo -6.0
Current: Buffalo -7.0
Tracking: Buffalo

And the wild and weird saga of the 2008 Buffalo Bills continues. A week or so ago they were nearly a TD favorite on Monday Night Football and they were stunned by a pathetic Cleveland club. Then last week they were all but left for dead before erupting for 54 in Kansas City. They do have the edge of a West Coast team heading east, which has been a moneymaker this season, but I still am curious why this number is on the move.

San Francisco at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
Open: 46.0
Current: 42.5
Tracking: 'Under'

It's going to be snowy and cold in good ol' Buffalo this weekend and that is what is driving down this total - not the money on the 'under'. We have highs in the mid-30s in Orchard Park and there will definitely be flakes on the ground.

Last year we tracked the opening steam movements of lines in both college football and the NFL. The idea was to see if the "sharp" money was really that, or if the idea of trailing these severe early line movements was merely a myth.

Here is the basic methodology. If a line starts as Penn State (-1) and moves to Penn State (-4) then we're going to track Penn State as our side, because the Lions are getting all of the money and driving the spread up. If the line starts as Penn State (-4) and then moves to Penn State (-2) we're going to track the opponent because they are taking the heavy action and it's moving the line lower.

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